When Will the Yellowstone Eruption Happen?
On July 24, 2024, Yellowstone exploded. Or at least, one particular locale within Yellowstone National Park (Biscuit Basin) experienced a hydrothermal event that shot rocks three feet wide hundreds of feet in the air and destroyed a large section of boardwalk. (You can watch it here.) Okay, but doesn't the whole park sit on top of a giant volcano? How soon we can expect the next big Yellowstone eruption?
I can’t help thinking back to that movie 2012, where the Mayans correctly predicted the end of the world, John Cusack gets to fly away in a giant space ark, and Yellowstone volcano goes off in a giant, nuclear bomb-like explosion that vaporizes everyone within hundreds of miles. So . . . I hate to ask, but what are the odds of something like that happening? (The explosion, not John Cusack.) Should I expect a worldwide cataclysm? Or at least indefinitely postpone next Thursday’s dentist appointment?
No need, geologists say. The U.S. Geological Survey’s Yellowstone Volcano Observatory released a statement the day after the Biscuit Basin incident to confirm there was no volcanic or seismic activity involved. (You can read that here.) So, no. We’re going to assume the government’s geologists aren’t misleading the public to avoid mass panic. We’re not in danger. Or at least, the Yellowstone supervolcano is no more likely to erupt than at any other time in the recent past.
The Yellowstone supervolcano (more officially known as the Yellowstone caldera) has been dormant for a long time, but dormant doesn’t mean extinct. National Geographic describes the situation in a poetic and rather unsettling way: “A sleeping giant is nestled in the western part of the United States. Though it stirs occasionally, it has not risen from slumber in nearly 70,000 years.” To put that in perspective, if the entire time dinosaurs ruled the Earth were a 24-hour day, 70,000 years would be just 3.6 seconds of that day. Geologically, that’s not so long a time.
And here’s the fun part. Geologists, the same people who assure us that everything is fine, also point out that eruptions occurred at gaps of about 600,000 to 800,000 years. Let’s see, if the last eruption happened 70,000 years ago . . . Well, you do the math.
If past eruptions are any guide, the next time the volcano goes off, it will likely spew huge clouds of volcanic ash, gas, magma, and other volcanic debris into the air. The Yellowstone supervolcano will collapse on itself, sucking in trees, mountains, bison, and tourists. Scientists say the last Yellowstone eruption was about 1,000 times greater than the eruption of Mt. Saint Helens in 1980, which flattened hundreds of square miles in Washington and Oregon.
But don’t worry! Really. The odds of such a thing happening tomorrow are 1 in 730,000. You’re more likely to be dealt a royal flush in poker (1 in 650,000), being injured by a toilet (1 in 10,000), and being born with extra fingers and toes (1 in 1000). So . . . you’re fine. Right?
Photo courtesy of National Nuclear Security Administration / Nevada Site Office.
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This post is brought to you by Flat Creek Inn, Jackson's closest lodging to Yellowstone National Park. That means we'll probably be closest to the epicenter of the explosion, so make sure to bring your cameras.
Ryan Kunz is a copywriter and freelance writer who writes on a variety of topics, including media, the outdoors, and whatever else strikes his fancy. 1 in 730,000 is definitely a little more likely than he would prefer.
